Gambling Expected Loss Calculator

See how much you might lose playing gambling games. Based on publicly available payout data.

Calculate your expected losses, time to ruin, and probability of winning.

Return % = how much of your bets comes back as winnings on average
Amount you bet each time
Money you bring each time you gamble
How often do you play?
How long have you been gambling?

Disclaimer: RTP (Return to Player) and variance values are estimates based on publicly reported data and may not reflect exact current rates. Win probabilities are approximations derived from Monte Carlo simulations using assumed parameters. Actual results will vary. This calculator is for educational purposes only.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does "expected loss" mean? Is it the same as "rake"?

Yes, the expected loss is essentially the "rake" or "vig" (vigorish) - the guaranteed profit the house takes from every bet over time. If a game has 5% house edge, you're effectively paying 5% of every bet as a fee to the casino. Unlike poker rake which is explicit, in casino games the rake is built into the odds. Over thousands of bets, you will lose almost exactly this percentage - it's mathematically inevitable.

What is Blackjack "Basic Strategy"?

Basic Strategy is the mathematically optimal way to play every blackjack hand, calculated by computer simulations of millions of hands. It tells you exactly when to hit, stand, double down, or split based on your cards and the dealer's up card. Following it perfectly reduces the house edge to just 0.5%. It requires memorizing a chart of about 270 decisions, but many casinos allow you to use a reference card at the table.

What is the "Assume 10" strategy in Blackjack?

The "Assume 10" (or "Assume Dealer Has 10") strategy is a simplified approach where you always assume the dealer's hidden card is a 10-value card (10, J, Q, K). This is reasonable since about 31% of cards are 10-value. You then play defensively: if dealer shows 7+, assume they have 17+; if you have 12-16, you stand less often. It's easier to learn but gives a higher house edge (~4%) compared to perfect basic strategy (0.5%).

Which gambling game has the best odds?

Blackjack with basic strategy has the best odds at approximately 99.5% return (0.5% house edge). European roulette follows at around 97.3%. Slot machines typically return 88-95%. Greek lottery games tend to have lower returns: KINO around 70%, Scratch tickets around 65%, and Joker around 47%.

How is the "chance to be profitable" calculated?

We simulate many sessions using each game's RTP and win rate. For variable-payout games (slots, lotteries), wins are modeled with a skewed payout distribution so small wins are common and big wins are rare; for fixed-payout table games, we use their win/lose probabilities. The chance to leave ahead is the share of simulated sessions that finish above zero.

How accurate are these estimates?

These are estimates only. RTP values and game variance are assumptions based on publicly reported data and industry averages, which may differ from actual current rates. Win probabilities are approximations from simulations using these assumed parameters. Real outcomes will vary significantly due to the inherent randomness of gambling. Use these figures as rough guides, not exact predictions.

Why do lotteries have worse odds than casino games?

Lotteries are designed with high house edges (30-50%) because players are attracted by large jackpots despite poor odds. Casino table games like roulette (2.7% edge) and blackjack (0.5% edge) operate in competitive markets where better odds attract players. State-run lotteries often have monopoly positions, reducing pressure to offer better returns.

Why isn't sports betting (Pame Stoixima) included?

Sports betting is excluded because its expected return varies significantly based on player skill and bet selection. For lotteries and fixed-odds games, the house edge remains constant regardless of how you play. In sports betting, skilled bettors can reduce the house edge (typically 5-10% on standard bets) while casual bettors may face higher losses. This makes it impossible to provide a single accurate RTP figure.

Why can't I "win it back" after losing?

This is the "Gambler's Fallacy" - the mistaken belief that past losses make future wins more likely. Each bet is independent: the dice, cards, or lottery numbers have no memory of your previous results. If you've lost €100, you're not "due" for a win. Statistically, trying to chase losses just adds more expected losses on top. The only way to stop losing is to stop playing.

What are my real odds of winning the lottery jackpot?

TZOKER jackpot odds are 1 in 24,435,180. You're more likely to: be struck by lightning twice (1 in 9 million), become a movie star (1 in 1.5 million), or find a four-leaf clover on your first try (1 in 10,000). If you bought one ticket every day, you'd need to play for 67,000 years on average to hit the jackpot once.

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